* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL18 AL182011 10/26/11 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL182011 AL18 10/26/11 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 116.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL18 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 95. 17.5 -84.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 1026 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 AL18 10/26/11 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.3 Range: 95.2 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 Range: 2.2 to -2.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 116.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 447.0 Range:873.0 to 5.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 3.3%)