* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP10 EP102011 10/11/11 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP102011 EP10 10/11/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP10 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 100. 17.6 -105.7 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 1011 12 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102011 EP10 10/11/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.0 Range: 49.5 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 229.4 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.0%)