* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP10 EP102011 10/10/11 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP102011 EP10 10/10/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP10 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 110. 16.3 -107.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 1010 12 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX E EP10 10/10/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 Range:-10.0 to 123.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.0 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.0%)