* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP09 EP092011 09/23/11 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP092011 EP09 09/23/11 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 45.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 60% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 60% is 12.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP09 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 110. 15.9 -100.4 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 100%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 0923 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX E EP09 09/23/11 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 45.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-10.0 to 123.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.1 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 385.6 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ -0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%)