* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP05 EP052011 08/02/11 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP052011 EP05 08/02/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP05 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 80. 13.8 -109.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 0802 12 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052011 EP05 08/02/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.6 Range: 49.5 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 202.4 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.0%)