* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP02 EP022011 06/20/11 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP022011 EP02 06/20/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 14.0 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP02 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 60. 16.6 -102.9 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 1%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 0620 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022011 EP02 06/20/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.5 Range: 49.5 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 163.0 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 5.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 71% is 9.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 66% is 11.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 61% is 15.1 times the sample mean( 4.0%)