* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP01 EP012011 06/08/11 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP012011 EP01 06/08/11 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 57% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 45% is 16.6 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP01 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 11.6 -100.3 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 74%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 0608 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012011 EP01 06/08/11 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.0 Range: 49.5 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.6 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 42% is 12.6 times the sample mean( 4.0%)