* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL15 AL152010 09/25/10 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152010 AL15 09/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 15.0 -84.3 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0925 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 AL15 09/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-23.1 to 154.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.2 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 Range: 2.4 to -2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 33.7 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 92.4 Range:733.7 to 13.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.3%)