* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL15 AL152010 09/24/10 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152010 AL15 09/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 14.1 -79.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0924 06 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 AL15 09/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-23.1 to 154.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.4 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 Range: 2.4 to -2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 33.7 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 98.8 Range:733.7 to 13.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%)