* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL13 AL132010 09/16/10 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL132010 AL13 09/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL13 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 45. 19.7 -91.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0916 06 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 AL13 09/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 95.2 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 92.4 Range:667.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.3%)