* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL10 AL102010 09/06/10 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL102010 AL10 09/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL10 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 24.1 -96.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0906 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102010 AL10 09/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-23.1 to 154.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 Range: 2.4 to -2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 33.7 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.8 Range:733.7 to 13.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.3%)