* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL06 AL062010 08/26/10 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL062010 AL06 08/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL06 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 85. 22.0 -53.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0826 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 AL06 08/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.2 Range: 95.2 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 562.4 Range:667.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%)