* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL11 AL112009 11/09/09 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 Atlantic Re-run RII AL112009 AL11 11/09/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL11 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 80. 24.4 -87.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1109 06 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 AL11 11/09/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 95.2 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 Range: 2.2 to -2.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 337.2 Range:873.0 to 5.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%)