* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP20 EP202009 10/17/09 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP202009 EP20 10/17/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 56% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 43% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP20 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 90. 13.7 -101.4 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 83%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1017 06 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) EPAC RE-RUN RII E EP20 10/17/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.3 Range: 82.1 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.6 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 Range: 22.5 to 115.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 36% is 8.9 times the sample mean( 4.0%)