* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP19 EP192009 10/13/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP192009 EP19 10/13/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP19 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 19.9 -109.9 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1013 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) EPAC RE-RUN RII E EP19 10/13/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 82.1 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 280.0 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 Range: 22.5 to 115.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%)