* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP19 EP192009 10/12/09 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP192009 EP19 10/12/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP19 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 18.2 -108.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1012 06 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) EPAC RE-RUN RII E EP19 10/12/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.3 Range: 82.1 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 164.0 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 Range: 22.5 to 115.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%)