* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP15 EP152009 09/09/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP152009 EP15 09/09/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 55. 15.4 -128.3 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0909 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP152009 EP15 09/09/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-10.0 to 123.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 Range: 74.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 287.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 Range: 25.0 to 105.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.0%)