* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP11 EP112009 08/24/09 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP112009 EP11 08/24/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP11 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 55. 14.2 -143.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0824 06 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP112009 EP11 08/24/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-10.0 to 123.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 74.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 Range: 25.0 to 105.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.0%)