* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL03 AL032009 08/16/09 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 Atlantic Re-run RII AL032009 AL03 08/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL03 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 55. 12.5 -39.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0816 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 AL03 08/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.9 Range: 95.2 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 Range: 2.2 to -2.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.0 Range:873.0 to 5.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%)