* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL02 AL022009 08/16/09 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 Atlantic Re-run RII AL022009 AL02 08/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL02 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 14.9 -57.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0816 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 AL02 08/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 60.7 Range: 95.2 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 235.4 Range:873.0 to 5.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.3%)