* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP08 EP082009 08/05/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP082009 EP08 08/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 42% is 10.5 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP08 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 70. 12.6 -126.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 67%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0805 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP082009 EP08 08/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-10.0 to 123.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.1 Range: 74.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 244.6 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 Range: 25.0 to 105.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 62% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 58% is 10.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 56% is 13.9 times the sample mean( 4.0%)