* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP04 EP042009 07/11/09 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP042009 EP04 07/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 5.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 67% is 8.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 64% is 11.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 64% is 17.0 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP04 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 10.4 -115.7 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 81%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0711 06 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) EPAC RE-RUN RII E EP04 07/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 41.9 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.9 Range: 82.1 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 3.6 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 235.8 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 Range: 22.5 to 115.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 86% is 6.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 84% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 82% is 14.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 71% is 17.8 times the sample mean( 4.0%)