* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL17 AL172008 11/07/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 Atlantic Re-run RII AL172008 AL17 11/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-18.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL17 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 75. 18.1 -81.7 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1107 12 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL172008 AL17 11/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.2 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 84.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 507.0 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 12.4 times the sample mean( 3.3%)