* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP18 EP182008 11/04/08 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP182008 EP18 11/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP18 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 9.5 -116.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1104 06 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP182008 EP18 11/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-10.0 to 123.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.7 Range: 74.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 204.6 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%)