* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP17 EP172008 10/24/08 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP172008 EP17 10/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP17 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 14.7 -105.4 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1024 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) EPAC RE-RUN RII E EP17 10/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 82.1 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.8 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%)