* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL15 AL152008 10/14/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 Atlantic Re-run RII AL152008 AL15 10/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 Range:-18.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 83% is 6.4 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 83% is 11.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 58% is 12.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 51% is 15.5 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 60. 13.8 -68.9 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 100%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 100%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1014 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152008 AL15 10/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 Range:-19.8 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 Range: 2.4 to -3.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 87.6 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 121.2 Range:960.3 to 4.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.4 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 66% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 60% is 13.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 3.3%)