*   EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS        *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA MISSING, PROXY USED        *
                    *  EP16        EP162008  10/11/08  00 UTC   *

++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++

   ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP162008 EP16       10/11/08  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  12.3 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 112.1 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  85.0 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  89.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.3 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  35.0 Range:  0.0 to  73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.5

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    32% is   2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    21% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    15% is   2.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 4.0%)

++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++
                    FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND       

EP16       Initial vmax, lat, lon:    50.   15.7   -98.9

 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     5%,   no lightning input, exper. algorithm
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm

Recent Lightning Density History  (Strikes/km2-year)
Date/Time    Inner core (0-100 km)  Rainband (300-400 km)
08 1011 00  ******                  ******

Sample mean:  14.9                     7.9

 Note: Inner core lightning <  sample mean favors RI
       Rainband lightning   >  sample mean favors RI

++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++
                    FOR JHT     

      ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) EPAC  RE-RUN RII E EP16       10/11/08  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  12.3 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 112.1 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:   0.0 Range: 82.1 to   0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/ -0.2
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  -0.5 Range:  2.1 to  -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/ -0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.3 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :  35.0 Range:  0.0 to  73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):  46.2 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)     :  50.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    28% is   2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    23% is   2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    14% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    10% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 4.0%)