*   EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS        *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA MISSING, PROXY USED        *
                    *  EP14        EP142008  10/04/08  12 UTC   *

++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++

   ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP142008 EP14       10/04/08  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  -5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.6 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   3.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  51.5 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.2 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  62.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.0 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  35.0 Range:  0.0 to  73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.5

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    20% is   1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    16% is   1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    10% is   1.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.9 times the sample mean( 4.0%)

++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++
                    FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND       

EP14       Initial vmax, lat, lon:    65.   18.3  -122.1

 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     7%,   no lightning input, exper. algorithm
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm

Recent Lightning Density History  (Strikes/km2-year)
Date/Time    Inner core (0-100 km)  Rainband (300-400 km)
08 1004 12  ******                  ******

Sample mean:  14.9                     7.9

 Note: Inner core lightning <  sample mean favors RI
       Rainband lightning   >  sample mean favors RI

++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++
                    FOR JHT     

      ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) EPAC  RE-RUN RII E EP14       10/04/08  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  -5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.6 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   3.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  51.5 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:   9.5 Range: 82.1 to   0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/ -0.2
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :   0.0 Range:  2.1 to  -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/ -0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.0 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :  35.0 Range:  0.0 to  73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 372.0 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)     :  65.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.2

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    20% is   1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    19% is   2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    13% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    11% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 4.0%)