* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * AL06 AL062008 08/20/08 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 Atlantic Re-run RII AL062008 AL06 08/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-18.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL06 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 27.5 -80.9 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0820 00 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL062008 AL06 08/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-19.8 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 Range: 2.4 to -3.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 259.6 Range:960.3 to 4.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.3%)