* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP08 EP082008 07/23/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP082008 EP08 07/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP08 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 15.0 -109.7 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0723 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP082008 EP08 07/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-10.0 to 123.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 74.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 120.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.0%)