* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP02 EP022008 07/02/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP022008 EP02 07/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP02 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 16.7 -127.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 1%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0702 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) EPAC RE-RUN RII E EP02 07/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 82.1 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 264.8 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%)