* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * 002008 06/01/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 Atlantic Re-run RII 002008 06/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-18.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 18.1 -90.4 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0601 12 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII 002008 06/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-19.8 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 Range: 2.4 to -3.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 87.0 Range:960.3 to 4.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.3%)