* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * 002008 05/31/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 Atlantic Re-run RII 002008 05/31/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-18.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.5 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 18.3 -88.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0531 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII 002008 05/31/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-19.8 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 2.4 to -3.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.5 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.0 Range:960.3 to 4.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.3%)