* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 38 44 52 52 50 46 46 48 51 51 53 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 38 44 52 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 39 33 29 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 16 18 16 18 16 23 17 25 20 22 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 -6 0 -4 1 -4 0 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 253 259 252 264 226 243 240 239 239 259 269 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 30.2 30.7 30.3 29.9 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 162 171 171 171 167 165 171 170 170 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 149 148 146 155 165 155 145 139 147 150 146 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 5 6 3 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 67 63 65 66 63 68 72 69 64 63 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 7 7 10 10 13 11 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 0 9 -10 -14 4 -15 15 0 -3 -51 -50 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 22 44 -8 -8 29 17 63 29 47 0 50 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -12 -7 -2 -3 2 10 9 15 6 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 32 42 40 72 109 74 76 97 -62 -169 -322 -479 -610 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.7 24.2 25.6 27.3 28.9 30.4 31.8 33.3 34.8 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.7 78.7 79.7 80.5 81.3 82.3 83.4 84.6 85.2 85.8 86.4 86.3 85.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 9 10 9 7 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 46 59 78 71 56 40 27 33 5 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 2. -2. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 22. 20. 16. 16. 18. 21. 21. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.2 77.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.82 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.7% 9.9% 7.5% 7.1% 10.2% 11.3% 17.1% Logistic: 1.1% 5.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.4% 5.1% 8.9% 21.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.7% 4.1% 3.0% 2.5% 5.1% 6.7% 12.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/13/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/13/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 33 38 44 52 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 36 42 50 38 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 32 38 46 34 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 32 40 28 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT