* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 69 68 66 67 68 72 71 79 80 80 78 78 82 75 V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 69 68 66 66 54 55 54 62 47 34 29 33 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 70 68 67 70 61 58 63 68 54 36 29 34 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 18 13 13 9 19 12 15 17 19 14 11 8 21 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 -2 2 -2 -2 2 1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 313 318 320 321 314 326 301 295 267 277 271 273 277 301 263 215 214 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.6 29.3 30.2 29.5 28.7 28.2 28.6 28.1 28.5 26.8 26.2 23.5 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 141 141 148 158 172 161 147 139 146 140 146 125 120 101 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 141 141 147 154 168 149 133 124 130 124 129 110 108 93 73 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 6 4 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 67 69 70 68 64 64 62 63 63 68 72 67 61 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 14 14 10 11 11 13 12 16 16 15 12 12 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 43 39 41 39 36 14 -9 -32 -17 -47 -18 -58 -35 -3 25 64 94 200 MB DIV 17 5 20 12 30 43 28 28 40 50 82 21 58 54 61 17 23 700-850 TADV -9 -6 6 17 12 8 0 -1 -3 7 5 22 15 -14 12 6 -71 LAND (KM) 398 282 208 74 55 89 28 -15 67 122 44 -82 -71 -103 193 248 81 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.0 17.6 19.1 20.7 22.1 23.8 25.5 27.6 30.1 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 67.5 69.9 71.7 73.5 76.2 78.5 80.4 81.9 82.8 83.2 82.7 81.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 25 22 18 16 14 13 11 10 10 11 14 16 18 23 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 28 18 22 36 67 47 57 17 21 5 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 27 CX,CY: -25/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. -15. -10. -12. -13. -17. -17. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. 2. 1. 9. 10. 10. 8. 8. 12. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.5 65.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 339.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 16.1% 11.3% 9.1% 8.7% 11.2% 11.5% 14.4% Logistic: 3.0% 6.6% 3.7% 1.8% 1.2% 2.5% 4.5% 2.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 12.5% 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 3.3% 2.4% 0.2% Consensus: 3.9% 11.8% 6.4% 3.8% 3.5% 5.7% 6.1% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/03/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 3( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 70 69 68 66 66 54 55 54 62 47 34 29 33 37 30 18HR AGO 70 69 68 67 66 64 64 52 53 52 60 45 32 27 31 35 28 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 62 62 50 51 50 58 43 30 25 29 33 26 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 57 57 45 46 45 53 38 25 20 24 28 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT