* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 51 51 47 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 51 51 47 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 46 39 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 29 33 35 26 15 34 41 42 34 28 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -7 -9 -3 0 -2 -4 -2 0 2 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 245 251 264 280 298 22 32 14 16 13 48 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.7 20.9 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 90 89 89 87 86 86 85 83 83 85 82 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 80 79 79 78 77 76 75 72 73 75 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -57.1 -57.6 -57.9 -58.1 -57.8 -57.4 -57.3 -56.9 -56.8 -56.9 -57.7 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 37 36 37 42 42 42 43 39 38 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 26 26 24 21 18 14 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 30 26 19 2 -11 -1 -5 -36 -71 -77 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 52 23 0 15 50 -28 -44 -51 -26 -25 26 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -8 0 -1 -3 0 -3 -2 1 -4 -4 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1701 1622 1542 1454 1368 1191 1030 896 816 788 828 925 854 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.3 32.4 32.3 32.0 31.7 31.6 31.7 32.8 34.9 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.8 29.7 28.7 27.6 26.5 24.4 22.6 21.2 20.3 19.9 19.5 19.1 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 3 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -23. -22. -25. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -17. -23. -29. -33. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -8. -18. -31. -42. -51. -56. -55. -56. -56. -58. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.6 30.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 52 51 51 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 51 51 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 49 45 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 44 40 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT