* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 49 51 53 53 45 39 33 30 26 24 29 24 25 24 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 49 51 53 53 45 39 33 30 26 24 29 24 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 45 46 47 49 48 43 38 34 30 26 25 25 26 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 8 19 14 19 24 27 23 24 22 17 25 33 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 0 2 7 12 14 11 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 333 343 335 351 333 305 297 289 272 298 264 268 252 261 236 243 244 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.1 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 142 143 136 123 118 118 117 115 113 111 109 107 106 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 122 122 124 118 106 100 99 98 96 94 92 91 89 88 85 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 2 1 4 5 6 2 1 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 52 53 54 54 47 39 30 30 29 32 24 22 23 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 23 23 23 22 18 15 11 9 5 4 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 99 79 70 63 31 19 5 -5 -21 -45 -76 -45 -28 -51 -49 -86 200 MB DIV -11 -6 -10 0 1 -15 -1 -29 -44 -71 -20 26 40 18 34 -17 -13 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -2 -2 8 1 4 -4 -1 9 11 7 21 2 -11 -13 LAND (KM) 132 136 149 172 196 288 368 329 297 259 217 185 167 146 126 117 107 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.2 23.0 23.3 23.5 24.6 25.7 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.3 85.6 85.7 85.8 85.8 85.8 85.8 85.7 85.7 85.8 85.8 85.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 2 3 4 5 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 96 75 56 46 39 24 9 8 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -13. -20. -24. -31. -33. -28. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. -0. -6. -12. -15. -19. -21. -16. -21. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.4 85.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.2% 10.3% 8.3% 7.9% 9.9% 9.3% 8.4% Logistic: 4.1% 12.1% 8.1% 4.1% 2.1% 4.1% 2.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.3% 6.2% 4.1% 3.3% 4.7% 3.9% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 47 49 51 53 53 45 39 33 30 26 24 29 24 25 24 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 52 52 44 38 32 29 25 23 28 23 24 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 47 47 39 33 27 24 20 18 23 18 19 18 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 39 31 25 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT