* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 57 62 60 57 55 53 50 44 38 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 45 49 47 44 42 40 37 31 25 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 31 30 29 29 31 33 33 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 24 25 25 33 30 23 12 14 14 17 19 24 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 9 8 12 12 6 8 -4 -1 4 0 10 8 12 7 11 SHEAR DIR 229 223 227 235 234 253 259 257 250 354 353 351 307 292 284 306 296 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.7 26.7 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 158 157 155 155 156 145 119 125 129 130 127 125 119 113 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 150 150 147 146 143 129 104 109 111 112 108 106 102 96 88 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 79 78 74 75 75 74 67 63 60 57 55 52 48 42 39 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 20 22 25 26 30 33 30 27 25 24 24 20 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR 115 119 123 111 99 128 165 185 188 186 148 95 55 27 -6 -45 -48 200 MB DIV 131 151 160 147 116 87 105 50 33 19 -14 8 -5 -4 -55 -43 -13 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 4 7 15 23 25 9 1 0 -2 4 4 6 5 9 LAND (KM) 64 103 127 222 267 196 11 56 76 140 203 275 308 301 248 153 67 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.4 21.9 23.5 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.5 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 87.0 86.4 85.4 84.4 82.3 80.7 80.4 81.3 82.5 83.6 84.6 85.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 90 90 75 74 80 49 35 14 19 21 30 26 23 9 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 18. 14. 10. 8. 6. 1. -5. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 23. 27. 32. 30. 27. 25. 23. 20. 14. 8. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 87.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.78 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.4% 10.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 21.2% 9.0% 2.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 12.6% 6.5% 3.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/06/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 45 49 47 44 42 40 37 31 25 19 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 45 50 42 46 44 41 39 37 34 28 22 16 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 44 36 40 38 35 33 31 28 22 16 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 34 26 30 28 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT