* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 67 75 83 92 94 89 87 84 77 75 78 81 83 86 86 V (KT) LAND 50 58 67 75 83 92 60 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 66 74 82 94 62 39 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 7 7 9 18 19 19 12 9 6 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -3 1 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 161 159 152 138 125 83 74 63 85 91 51 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 157 157 158 163 165 163 162 158 158 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 153 150 151 150 148 154 157 155 153 148 148 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 83 85 83 83 84 81 79 81 80 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 24 25 24 19 17 16 13 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 106 104 111 117 131 137 159 195 186 154 128 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 117 103 99 113 136 162 128 130 101 74 81 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 2 5 6 5 3 1 -2 2 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 331 370 301 221 140 22 -39 -129 -213 -163 -135 -126 -133 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.4 80.4 81.1 81.9 83.0 83.8 84.7 85.7 86.8 87.7 88.5 89.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 7 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 53 47 43 39 39 38 10 8 6 5 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. -1. -5. -7. -12. -15. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 16. 11. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 25. 33. 42. 44. 39. 37. 34. 27. 25. 28. 31. 33. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 78.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 16.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 9.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 4.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 6.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.7% 69.3% 52.1% 39.8% 30.4% 53.4% 60.5% 62.4% Logistic: 44.7% 83.1% 68.9% 66.8% 54.6% 70.3% 72.5% 83.1% Bayesian: 54.0% 94.7% 84.1% 67.3% 61.1% 74.7% 32.7% 94.3% Consensus: 43.5% 82.3% 68.4% 58.0% 48.7% 66.1% 55.2% 79.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/01/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 9( 12) 13( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 11( 11) 36( 43) 19( 54) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 58 67 75 83 92 60 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 58 66 74 83 51 29 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 50 47 46 54 62 71 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 48 57 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT