* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 62 61 55 49 45 42 41 39 37 34 30 27 24 22 V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 62 61 55 49 45 42 41 39 37 34 30 27 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 58 57 51 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 10 10 12 19 23 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 1 6 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 144 147 197 213 205 206 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.6 23.7 24.6 20.7 14.8 14.8 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 112 99 107 88 76 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 97 88 96 82 74 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.8 -55.5 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 51 52 57 59 55 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 43 43 42 41 38 36 41 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 85 94 70 87 158 180 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 101 92 77 65 118 91 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -3 6 -6 -14 -28 -69 -106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 799 738 696 638 547 555 1265 1004 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.9 39.0 40.4 41.8 45.3 49.3 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 60.8 59.5 56.9 54.3 46.2 35.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 20 24 30 37 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -27. -30. -33. -36. -37. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -10. -16. -20. -23. -24. -26. -28. -31. -35. -38. -41. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.8 62.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 62 61 55 49 45 42 41 39 37 34 30 27 24 22 18HR AGO 65 64 63 63 62 56 50 46 43 42 40 38 35 31 28 25 23 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 60 54 48 44 41 40 38 36 33 29 26 23 21 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 48 42 38 35 34 32 30 27 23 20 17 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT