* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 38 36 35 34 31 29 29 29 30 29 28 26 25 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 38 36 35 34 31 29 29 29 30 29 28 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 37 36 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 17 19 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 207 218 201 194 192 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.0 27.2 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 145 136 127 121 114 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 52 51 46 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 -4 -16 -29 -38 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 5 1 8 11 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 17 15 17 11 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 357 354 317 281 287 251 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.0 25.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.1 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.5 116.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 7 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 112.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 18.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.3% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##