* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 29 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 34 29 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 34 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 34 35 37 39 44 36 42 39 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 3 2 9 7 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 248 244 243 236 234 239 238 249 251 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.1 24.0 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 102 104 103 101 105 104 104 106 108 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 40 41 41 37 34 29 27 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 20 18 16 15 14 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 11 8 0 -2 -14 -32 -16 -19 -24 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -18 -20 2 13 19 29 8 -15 -21 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 2 4 0 1 -5 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1897 1919 1942 1968 1996 1921 1825 1746 1664 1589 1514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.3 133.1 133.8 134.6 135.3 136.6 137.6 138.4 139.2 139.9 140.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -18. -29. -39. -47. -50. -52. -54. -57. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -19. -22. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -25. -34. -44. -57. -68. -78. -84. -87. -92. -97.-104.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.2 132.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##