* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 50 50 46 41 40 40 36 34 31 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 50 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 47 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 21 19 19 23 18 21 33 45 45 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 0 -3 2 1 -1 0 -3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 239 253 260 249 253 259 260 241 240 237 262 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 30.0 30.8 30.2 30.0 29.5 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 153 152 155 166 169 170 169 159 129 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 131 128 127 127 136 153 144 141 133 108 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -51.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 0 1 1 2 2 4 2 5 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 50 55 54 50 46 48 47 46 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 18 18 14 11 10 9 9 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 -1 -15 11 -10 8 -13 21 -44 2 -32 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 37 31 27 34 28 15 8 15 -2 -3 -26 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 12 10 5 10 9 -4 8 0 14 6 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 215 162 105 56 15 -53 -103 -123 -142 -235 -317 -414 -505 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.9 31.9 32.9 34.1 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.3 94.8 95.2 95.7 96.2 96.1 95.5 94.4 93.1 91.8 90.4 89.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 5 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 50 48 42 42 36 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -13. -17. -20. -22. -23. -26. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -0. -0. -4. -9. -10. -10. -14. -16. -19. -23. -23. -23. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.6 93.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.6% 10.5% 8.1% 7.4% 10.5% 10.9% 11.5% Logistic: 4.0% 8.0% 9.2% 8.2% 1.2% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.0% 6.6% 5.4% 2.9% 4.4% 3.7% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 50 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 50 49 49 35 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT