* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 47 54 59 64 68 70 66 67 68 67 67 72 73 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 47 54 59 64 68 70 66 67 68 67 67 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 53 60 65 69 71 69 69 68 67 66 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 2 6 10 14 10 8 5 6 11 8 17 16 23 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 0 -1 -6 -5 -2 6 9 8 8 8 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 271 298 330 64 111 84 82 102 130 267 271 303 320 318 312 306 283 SST (C) 27.4 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 123 124 128 133 128 123 124 123 119 118 123 124 128 131 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 119 119 123 129 123 118 117 115 110 108 111 111 112 112 111 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 68 68 65 64 65 62 61 57 60 61 66 63 57 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 17 18 18 17 17 17 13 13 14 15 15 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 99 101 106 124 122 105 102 88 64 56 60 36 -4 -23 -22 -9 -28 200 MB DIV 28 23 3 16 -4 -3 14 -3 1 0 30 17 19 22 45 10 -20 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 7 1 2 0 5 2 11 13 15 7 18 14 1 -3 LAND (KM) 466 608 749 895 1040 1343 1645 1915 2128 2219 2197 2234 2323 2340 2283 2176 2069 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.4 22.7 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.7 23.0 24.3 25.6 27.0 29.8 32.6 35.1 37.3 39.3 41.2 42.7 43.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 7 8 11 12 6 7 10 3 1 6 8 10 11 13 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 31. 32. 33. 32. 32. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 21.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 17.7% 12.0% 8.9% 8.2% 11.7% 12.9% 18.6% Logistic: 6.5% 27.2% 16.2% 5.0% 2.7% 12.4% 15.8% 21.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 20.8% 5.1% 0.7% 0.4% 4.3% 3.0% 2.8% Consensus: 5.0% 21.9% 11.1% 4.8% 3.8% 9.5% 10.6% 14.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 45 47 54 59 64 68 70 66 67 68 67 67 72 73 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 43 50 55 60 64 66 62 63 64 63 63 68 69 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 43 48 53 57 59 55 56 57 56 56 61 62 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 39 44 48 50 46 47 48 47 47 52 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT