* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 25 20 18 17 21 24 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 28 29 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 28 28 29 34 34 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 17 15 15 18 34 52 75 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 3 1 7 3 2 4 -2 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 271 299 289 285 266 252 243 222 221 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 28.0 25.6 19.1 19.2 16.1 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 163 165 166 167 141 116 83 82 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 137 139 141 145 127 107 78 77 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.8 -50.1 -50.5 -51.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -50.6 -50.1 -49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 -0.3 1.1 2.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 6 4 10 10 4 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 60 63 66 65 55 51 50 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 14 12 8 8 9 17 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -58 -23 2 41 73 124 212 152 184 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 31 28 41 73 10 36 64 56 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 18 16 15 48 18 7 13 -44 -117 -93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -495 -566 -659 -684 -744 -521 -38 204 65 -15 439 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.4 36.3 36.9 37.4 38.2 39.4 41.8 44.8 47.7 50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.5 91.6 90.6 88.9 87.2 81.9 75.0 67.5 60.6 54.1 47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 15 18 24 29 30 28 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -2. -12. -25. -39. -47. -55. -65. -72. -75. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -11. -15. -17. -16. -9. -6. -6. -7. -3. -3. -0. -0. -2. -7. -13. -13. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -16. -18. -9. -12. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -15. -17. -18. -14. -11. -12. -11. -20. -37. -41. -47. -57. -68. -77. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.4 92.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -50.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/28/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 28 28 28 29 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 31 31 32 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 30 31 33 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 26 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT