* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 60 58 54 50 48 48 49 48 50 51 52 51 51 50 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 60 58 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 57 48 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 27 27 30 29 29 38 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 -2 -3 1 0 -1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 219 219 213 215 231 226 229 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.9 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 171 171 171 170 170 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 149 150 153 160 163 166 170 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 9 6 11 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 55 55 54 56 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 7 13 19 24 11 7 -17 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 32 6 29 39 16 30 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 25 10 9 10 7 10 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 331 227 124 60 8 11 -28 -99 -184 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.2 28.0 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.1 88.7 89.4 90.1 91.8 93.6 95.4 97.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 53 59 43 40 39 11 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. -9. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.4 87.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 16.3% 10.9% 8.4% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 11.2% 7.1% 3.8% 2.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 9.2% 6.0% 4.1% 0.7% 4.0% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 60 60 58 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 59 59 57 48 35 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 54 45 32 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 39 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT