* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 65 65 65 56 40 24 24 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 65 55 37 31 30 27 29 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 63 55 36 31 30 28 29 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 20 24 27 48 65 63 46 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -1 3 5 1 -3 -3 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 280 258 233 228 204 212 228 239 271 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.0 27.4 18.0 15.6 11.2 12.8 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 160 152 140 134 79 74 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 141 135 126 121 75 71 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -49.4 -49.4 -49.4 -49.0 -49.5 -51.0 -52.0 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 6 7 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 55 56 57 58 56 54 51 50 47 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 19 22 18 11 6 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -12 -10 -2 -6 30 29 41 14 53 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 38 56 91 79 86 71 38 34 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 13 27 28 31 14 99 -15 18 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 147 158 59 -35 -32 -98 -112 -113 -43 383 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.1 31.1 32.7 34.2 38.3 43.0 47.7 51.3 54.2 57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.8 79.6 79.0 78.3 75.6 72.0 67.8 63.4 58.9 54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 16 20 25 27 25 22 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 39 43 23 17 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -13. -21. -28. -30. -31. -35. -39. -45. -49. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. -0. -10. -18. -15. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. -4. -20. -36. -36. -38. -44. -50. -56. -61. -65. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.0 79.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.27 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 16.4% 11.1% 8.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 9.1% 5.9% 3.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.5% 5.7% 4.0% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 63 65 55 37 31 30 27 29 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 53 35 29 28 25 27 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 48 30 24 23 20 22 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 40 22 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT