* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/29/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 51 53 58 57 55 50 47 42 41 39 41 40 45 40 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 51 53 40 41 39 34 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 50 40 40 37 34 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 3 7 7 17 27 20 27 23 34 26 41 33 37 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 4 8 4 4 4 2 0 -1 -3 -1 -5 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 228 257 208 222 217 247 245 243 246 246 260 263 262 251 255 222 227 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.9 30.0 29.7 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 155 150 156 156 148 154 153 154 167 168 162 169 170 171 171 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 155 150 156 156 146 148 143 140 150 147 139 145 146 150 153 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 10 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 55 52 49 44 47 51 54 53 57 52 54 53 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 19 16 14 11 9 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 102 90 73 62 57 37 2 -24 -44 -49 -70 -9 -21 2 2 29 1 200 MB DIV 42 45 47 75 65 45 26 13 -1 17 8 22 9 42 22 42 36 700-850 TADV 2 6 1 -2 -4 19 9 -2 -5 0 -3 0 1 1 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 460 465 254 84 42 -55 59 81 139 64 -53 -72 -43 -31 -83 -36 -118 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.0 19.3 20.7 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.2 27.3 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 62.3 64.1 65.9 67.6 71.0 74.1 76.6 78.5 80.0 81.0 81.7 82.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 18 18 17 15 12 10 9 7 6 5 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 43 43 99 83 36 39 35 76 44 33 19 30 32 5 20 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -23. -25. -24. -24. -23. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 18. 17. 15. 10. 7. 2. 1. -1. 1. 0. 5. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.9 60.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 42.0% 26.7% 12.4% 10.4% 16.0% 16.0% 17.8% Logistic: 15.5% 29.6% 25.0% 4.5% 1.1% 2.9% 2.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 7.5% 1.7% 12.1% 1.2% 0.6% 5.6% 3.7% 1.1% Consensus: 10.4% 24.4% 21.3% 6.0% 4.0% 8.1% 7.3% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/29/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 47 51 53 40 41 39 34 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 46 48 35 36 34 29 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 29 30 28 23 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 19 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT