* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212019 11/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 23 26 28 30 32 35 37 40 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 23 26 28 30 32 35 37 40 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 2 4 3 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 190 206 204 214 229 224 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 143 142 142 144 149 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 64 63 68 68 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -28 -36 -40 -46 -41 -41 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 51 23 29 20 33 4 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 707 709 717 725 737 780 839 885 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.3 104.9 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.6 108.9 110.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 5 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 10 9 9 11 21 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 104.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##