* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 48 45 40 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 48 45 40 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 51 49 42 33 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 18 22 35 45 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 263 248 250 236 227 224 229 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 26.9 27.3 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 148 146 142 133 137 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 59 59 59 59 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 14 14 13 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 16 9 1 12 22 26 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 39 59 56 47 39 51 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 2 6 21 25 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 706 680 662 633 606 434 200 -12 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.1 19.0 21.1 23.1 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.4 109.8 110.1 110.3 110.3 109.9 110.0 110.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 11 10 9 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -14. -23. -30. -35. -37. -39. -40. -42. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. -25. -32. -37. -40. -41. -41. -42. -44. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 109.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 6.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##